The odds of winning the Mega Millions jackpot are 1 in 290,472,336 for each $5 play. That equals approximately 0.000000344%.
Published or verified:
The odds of winning any Mega Millions prize are much better: 1 in 23, or about 4.35%. The smallest prize is $10, and most winning tickets do not win the jackpot.
Mega Millions Odds at a Glance
| Outcome | Odds per play | Approximate chance |
|---|---|---|
| Win the jackpot | 1 in 290,472,336 | 0.000000344% |
| Match five white balls | 1 in 12,629,232 | 0.00000792% |
| Win any prize | 1 in 23 | 4.35% |
| Ticket price | $5 | Multiplier included |
A Mega Millions play costs $5 under the game format described here. Each play includes a randomly assigned 2X, 3X, 4X, 5X or 10X multiplier for non-jackpot prizes.
Why Are the Mega Millions Jackpot Odds So Low?
The jackpot odds are so low because each play combines:
- Five different white-ball numbers selected from 1 through 70
- One Mega Ball selected from 1 through 24
To win the jackpot, a ticket must match all six numbers. The total number of possible combinations is:
C(70, 5) × 24 = 290,472,336
That produces jackpot odds of 1 in 290,472,336. Quick Pick and personally selected numbers have the same odds because every valid combination is equally likely to be drawn.
Mega Millions Odds by Prize Tier
The odds for each prize tier are:
| Numbers matched | Typical prize range | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Mega Ball only | $10 to $50 | 1 in 35 |
| 1 white ball + Mega Ball | $14 to $70 | 1 in 86 |
| 2 white balls + Mega Ball | $20 to $100 | 1 in 665 |
| 3 white balls | $20 to $100 | 1 in 607 |
| 3 white balls + Mega Ball | $400 to $2,000 | 1 in 13,965 |
| 4 white balls | $1,000 to $5,000 | 1 in 38,859 |
| 4 white balls + Mega Ball | $20,000 to $100,000 | 1 in 893,761 |
| 5 white balls | $2 million to $10 million | 1 in 12,629,232 |
| 5 white balls + Mega Ball | Jackpot | 1 in 290,472,336 |
The multiplier determines the non-jackpot prize amount. California uses pari-mutuel payouts for some non-jackpot tiers, so prize amounts there can differ from the fixed ranges shown above.
What Does the 1-in-23 Chance of Winning Really Mean?
The 1-in-23 figure includes every prize tier, including the $10 minimum prize. For one play, that is approximately:
- 4.35% chance of winning any prize
- 95.65% chance of winning nothing
It does not represent the chance of winning the jackpot. The jackpot odds remain 1 in 290,472,336, and a win on one ticket does not imply a large payout.
Do More Mega Millions Tickets Improve Your Odds?
Yes. Additional plays give you more chances to match the winning combination, but the starting odds are so low that the change remains small.
Assuming 10 different plays:
- One play: 1 in 290,472,336
- Ten plays: approximately 1 in 29 million
- Cost of 10 plays: $50
Ten plays make the jackpot chance roughly 10 times higher. The chance of not winning the jackpot in that drawing is still more than 99.999996%.
Buying duplicate tickets with the same numbers does not increase the chance that those numbers will be drawn. If they win, duplicate tickets can increase the payout.
Bottom Line
Mega Millions is entertainment spending, not a realistic way to build wealth. If you play, remember that the $5 buys a very small chance of a jackpot and a somewhat larger chance of a small prize. Quick Pick and self-selected numbers have the same odds.